In a speech this week, on 30 June, Andy Haldane examined a range of economic indicators to consider the impact that Covid-19 has had on the UK and global economies since the start of 2020, as well as the outlook for the remainder of the year. He also considers the implications for monetary policy and sets out the rationale for his most recent decisions.
The Chief Economist emphasised that the economy was still facing an unprecedented collapse and that a steep rise in unemployment posed a threat to a swift rebound, but he remained optimistic. “Both the UK and the global economies are already well into the recovery phase. The UK’s recovery is more than two months old,” he said in a speech online.
Andy Haldane reflected that real-time data on payments, traffic flow, energy use and business surveys suggested that the recovery has come somewhat sooner, and has been materially faster, than in the [Bank’s] May scenario — indeed than any other mainstream macroeconomic forecaster.
Mr Haldane also said that the real-time data used by the Bank suggested that the cumulative loss in annual GDP as a result of the pandemic would be 8 per cent, rather than the 17 per cent modelled by the Bank in May. Britain’s decline in the three months to June now looked likely to be 20 per cent rather than the 27 per cent in the May scenario.
Mr Haldane’s prediction of a V-shaped rebound was supported by separate data compiled by Barclays. Fabrice Montagné, Barclays’ UK economist, said that the recovery had “entered a new phase” as social restrictions were eased.
You can read the full speech by Andy Haldane here.
Working safely guidance tool
To help employers reopen their businesses safely the government has updated the working safely tool to reflect new easements from 4 July in England.
The guidance highlighted will help you carry out a risk assessment and make sensible adjustments to the site and workforce. Employees can also use this guidance to check what their workplace needs to do to keep people safe.
This guidance is only for businesses that are allowed to reopen in England and can be found here.
Coronavirus in Leicester On Monday 29 June the government announced that Leicester and its surrounding area would be asked to continue with the current national restrictions for a further two weeks from 4 July. Non-essential shops that reopened on 15 June will be asked to close from 30 June. Bars, restaurants and hairdressers will not open on 4 July. Schools will close from Thursday 2 July except to vulnerable children and children of key workers. They will not reopen until next term.
Further advice from Leicester City Council will be updated here.
ESSENTIAL INFORMATION LINKS ON ALL ASPECTS: